This is the most anticipated NBA season I can remember in my 23 years on the planet, so naturally, preseason takes ran amok. It’s obviously too early to make concrete conclusions after three days, but not too early to see how certain concerns or hopes were illuminated in game action.
Welcome to the first installment of my ‘12 Takes’ series, which I’ll be doing weekly (or close to it) for the rest of the NBA season. Let’s go.
- Anthony Davis’s reluctance to play center significantly lowers the Lakers’ ceiling.
It’s going to take time for the Lakers’ offense to mesh. The unit has never played together, so the opening night clunkiness in the 112-102 loss to the Clippers wasn’t surprising.
Unfortunately, it also wasn’t surprising to see AD mostly at the four. Davis is a five, but his reluctance to play the position forced coach Frank Vogel to give 36 combined minutes to JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard, neither of whom are good (they combined for 7 points).
When Kyle Kuzma comes back, will Vogel deploy him as a massive small forward with LeBron at the point, AD at power forward and one of the Washed Brothers at center? Laker fans should hope not — McGee and Howard are negative assets who destroy spacing. There’s zero reason for either to play significant minutes, particularly when Kuz returns.
In the playoffs, Davis will assuredly play mostly at center. Still, the regular season matters for seeding. Davis’ reluctance to play his position could be the difference between a 3-seed and a6-seed; in other words, having home-court advantage against the Mavericks in round one versus not having home court against the Rockets or Jazz. So yeah, it’s a problem.
2. The Lakers are a good point guard short.
It’s going to be difficult to win the West if LeBron is the team’s only competent ball-handler. The ship sailed on the Avery Bradley point guard experiment years ago, and he delivered a 0 assist performance as if to prove it. Alex Caruso is a solid backup (who bizarrely got a DNP-CD Tuesday), but isn’t good enough to play huge minutes. Ditto for late-career Rajon Rondo.
Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry both could become available via trade, but both make north of $30 million annually; neither will be a Laker this year. Goran Dragic is an interesting name who’d fit, but his $19.2 million salary is also a non-starter.
The Lakers’ lack of financial flexibility and tradable assets will make it difficult to acquire that guard. Finding a difference-making ball-handler in the buyout market seems like a pipe dream. The offense would really benefit from an additional dose of off-bounce creativity, but the avenues to acquire such a player are blocked. Barring a miracle acquisition, the Lakers will remain a distant second to the Clippers in the Battle For LA.
3. Andrew Wiggins remains Andrew Wiggins.
The Wiggins Experience: 21 points (10-27 FG, 1-2 FT), 0 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks
The Wiggins Experience: Play 36 minutes in an NBA game, have a -26 plus/minus and your team still wins because your backup Josh Okogie was +22 in 14 minutes.
The Wiggins Experience: Get to the foul line 56 seconds into the game, make one of two, then hoist 27 shots in your remaining 35 minutes without getting to the charity stripe again.
The Wiggins Experience: Attempt 5 more shots and score 15 less points than your teammate Karl-Anthony Towns (by contrast, he’s good).
It’s just a game, but barfing up 27 shots and tallying 0 assists shows that nothing has changed. He’s the same old chucker.
4. Jarrett Allen is rightfully getting the bulk of the work in
Brooklyn.
When the Nets gave a washed DeAndre Jordan $40 million contract this offseason to be Kyrie and KD’s friend, I was immediately concerned. The Nets already had a great young center in Allen and Jordan’s deal suggested he’d steal minutes at the five.
One game in and those concerns are quelled; Allen played 36 minutes* Wednesday night to DeAndre’s 17.
There’s no use trying to pretend like DJ’s ludicrous contract was anything other than a tax for signing his superstar buds. It appears coach Kenny Atkinson and the Nets realize that and remain committed to giving Allen the lion’s share of the work at the five.**
*KAT kind of demolished Allen, but that’s not shocking. Stretch centers will always be the nemesis of Allen, Rudy Gobert, and any other prototypical rim protector.
**I couldn’t be much more bullish on him, and not because he went to Texas. If you had to design a modern center, you’d draw up a 7-foot rim-runner with insane length, bounce and rim-protecting instincts. He’s still got another level to reach offensively, too; he’s more skilled than you realize.
5. Justise Winslow is on the cusp.
It’s easy to get discouraged when a touted draft pick struggles initially. Patience can be hard. But as Winslow is proving, it’s necessary.
In his first three NBA seasons, it wasn’t exactly clear what Justise Winslow was. His defense was mostly as advertised, but there was no identity to his offensive game.
Last season, Winslow reinvented himself as a point-forward setting career highs with 12.6 points, 5.4 boards and 4.3 dimes with his typical stout defense. Still just 23, his mini-leap planted the seeds for a bigger one in 2019.
The very early returns couldn’t be more promising. Winslow was a monster in the Heat’s 120-101 W over the Grizzlies with 27 points (10-21/1-2/6-9), 7 boards, 7 assists, and a +22 +/-. He was confident both facilitating and attacking.
The continued development of his jumper will determine how good he’ll eventually be. As it is, he’s an awesome second banana alongside Jimmy Butler.
I’m starting to get ridiculously excited about the potential of the Heat. They’re firmly in the mix for the 3-seed in the East.
6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is ready to be a star right now.
The prize of the Paul George trade is the anti-Winslow in that he looked like a future star from the moment he stepped onto the court as a rookie. With extreme size, length and instincts, SGA looked the part of not only a future stopper, but a guy who could one day guard Kawhi Leonard-types.* His offense impressed, too, but he was more efficient than explosive; it looked like it’d take some years of development before he became a go-to-guy.
Maybe not! OKC’s new guard dropped 26 on opening night (10-23/3-7/3-6). His aggressiveness showed he’s not scared to be “the guy”.
He’s creative around the basket with unteachable touch, and his length allows him to finish around the league’s best rim protectors: watch him beat Rudy Gobert with this finger roll. He’s going to live at the foul line. His jumper was the question coming out of college, but it exceeded expectations as a rookie and looked pretty good Wednesday night.
I didn’t expect the 21-year old to come out of the gate ready to be the no. 1 offensive option on a team with Chris Paul and Danilo Gallinari. He looks not only ready, but capable. If SGA is going to be this dynamic, it’s possible we underrated the Thunder as a potential playoff team, even without PG in the loaded West.
*Players who can credibly guard big, wing superstars are among the rarest and most coveted in the league. Currently, the only NBA point guard who stands a chance in Jrue Holiday; SGA is much bigger and longer than the Pelicans’ stopper. His defensive potential is remarkable.
7. Luke Kennard is more than the guy picked above Donovan Mitchell.
I feel bad for Luke, who will always be compared to the Dwayne Wade-lookalike drafted immediately after him.
The 6’5” Duke product won’t always drop 30, but he’s a tremendous shooter and heady player. His ability to handle the ball and fire off-the-bounce separates him from traditional spot-up shooters; watch him parlay an Andre Drummond ball screen into a clean mid-range step back.
His poor length and athleticism limits his defensive potential, but he’s a long-term rotation guy. We need to stop identifying Kennard as The Guy Who Was Picked Before Mitchell and respect what he is — a good, young NBA player with a bright future. Have I mentioned that I like guys with confidence and IQ?
8. Mo Bamba looked good.
I’m taking special interest in Bamba’s development. He was disappointing as a rookie before suffering a season-ending fractured foot. I was eager to see how the former Longhorn came out of the gates in year two.
He was great in limited minutes Wednesday, with 7 points (3-5/1-3/0-0) and 7 boards in 14 minutes. The problem: he’s completely blocked in Orlando after the team locked up Nik Vucevic with a 4-year, $100 million contract.
Smart franchises don’t invest the sixth overall pick into a 7-foot center when their best incumbent is a 7-foot center. Smart franchises aren’t the Orlando Magic. Here’s hoping Mo gets dealt to a more competent organization that knows what to do with his development. There aren’t many 7-footers who combine rim-protection and three-point shooting; his upside remains intact.
9. The Rockets needed Russell Westbrook’s chaos.
Death, taxes, and the Rockets blowing huge halftime leads in front of an indifferent home crowd.
What was new, and incredibly exciting, is the impact that Russell Westbrook had in the first half of the loss to the Bucks. I was initially pessimistic about the seemingly confounding marriage of the league’s two most ball-dominant players, but talked myself into it over the summer. The Harden-led squads of yesteryear have been great but slow, methodical and boringly predictable; Russ adds a fresh dose of athleticism and unpredictability.
That was on full display in the first half against Milwaukee, encapsulated here: snaring a d-board off a missed free throw and catching everybody off guard by flying the other way and finding Eric Gordon in the corner for a wide-open three. It was the perfect unity of two distinct styles: Russ’ chaotic tempo and the Rockets’ three-point shooting.
There’s a lot to iron out with Westbrook’s inclusion into the Rockets’ system, but game one demonstrated why I’m so excited. The squad sorely needed his improvisational athletic chaos, and his unpredictability elevates Houston’s ceiling.
10. The Rockets will stagger James and Russ as much as possible.
Mike D’Antoni isn’t fooling around; less than halfway into the first quarter, Austin Rivers came in for Westbrook. With three minutes left in the first, Russ re-entered, subbing for Harden.
We knew the Rockets would stagger the stars. It was still interesting, however, to see it happen immediately in game one. Russ obviously isn’t used to getting yanked so quickly.
Should they have let Harden and Westbrook play longer together to speed up the learning curve? Eh. There’ll be plenty of time to gel, so I actually like D’Antoni laying down the law early. One of the two will be on the floor at all times, so Russell’s going to have to sacrifice some first quarter minutes.
11. Terrence Ferguson has to do…something.
For a Thunder franchise planning for the future, the development of 2017 first rounder Terrance Ferguson is an underrated variable. The 6’6” swingman made strides last year after a poor rookie season, and it was reasonable to expect a year three leap.
For some reason, he went 0-0 from the field in Wednesday’s loss despite playing half the game. I mean…no. Shoot the ball, dude. You’re an off-guard with freaky athletic ability and a sweet jumper.
I’m pretty concerned by this, and the Thunder should be too. You’d think the former first-rounder would be excited at his increased offensive chances in the wake of George’s exit; how do you not shoot once?
12. The dispiriting apathy of Houston’s home crowds.
Maybe it’s because the city is so spread out. Maybe it’s because getting downtown can be a pain.
But every single year, the Toyota Center is half-packed despite championship contending teams.
I thought it’d be different this year. With Kevin Durant leaving the Bay and Westbrook coming, I figured fans would be more excited for this season than ever, and we’d finally get some live crowds.
Wrong.